Context before scores
Information needs a place, a time, a source and visible limitations.
Integrated protection concept · Concept phase
Wildfires begin
long before the flames.
AEGIS brings risk awareness, prevention, preparedness and ecological responsibility into one shared framework.
A conceptual framework for responsible wildfire preparednessBerlin · 2026
06connected
layers
layers
01The idea behind AEGIS
Fire is visible.
Risk takes shape before it.
Weather, vegetation, terrain, infrastructure and human activity interact. Improving protection means looking at these factors together and recognizing where an assessment remains uncertain.
AEGIS outlines how observation, data, analysis, communication and responsible action could work together. It organizes tasks and interfaces; it is not a finished platform and does not provide real-time alerts.
Preparedness over isolated measures
Prevention, alert pathways and response planning must work together.
People make decisions
Models can support decisions. Responsibility remains with the competent authorities.
02The AEGIS model
One system, six perspectives
Select a layer.
See how it connects.
The layers describe functions and their interfaces. Select a layer to see its guiding question and review point.
Functional layer 01
Observation and sensing
Potential environmental, weather, satellite and ground observations are selected to address a specific protection question.
GUIDING QUESTION
Which observations are actually needed for the protection decision at hand?
REVIEW POINT
Document the source, date, spatial coverage and known limitations of the observations.
This view explains the concept. It does not process live data or calculate current wildfire danger.
03Interactive scenario room
A fictional learning example
What if
conditions change?
Choose an illustrative situation. The scenario room shows which questions the six AEGIS layers would consider together—without real data, risk calculations or operational advice.
SIMULATION · NO LIVE DATA
Assessment frame
Prolonged dry conditions
This learning example is not a real situation or forecast. Decisions belong to responsible authorities using verified information.
04From insight to protection
A protection cycle
that learns from experience.
The five steps provide a guide. They will not always be linear and must be adapted to local conditions.
Observe
Capture relevant environmental and operational information.
Assess
Make influencing factors, data gaps and uncertainty visible.
Prepare
Coordinate prevention, alert pathways, roles and resources.
Act
Review information and coordinate measures responsibly.
Learn
Evaluate results and impacts to improve the approach.
05Responsible application
Technology supports.
Responsibility remains.
An index or alert is only as reliable as its data, assumptions and methods. AEGIS must make clear what is known—and what is not.
Transparency
Sources, recency and limits of an assessment remain visible.
Expert review
Models are validated for their specific purpose and location.
Ecological care
Protection measures consider effects on soil, water and habitats.
Clear accountability
Roles and action thresholds are agreed with the responsible authorities.
06From concept to evaluation
A pilot begins
with a clear question.
A pilot should be small enough to evaluate carefully and clearly defined enough to assess its value.
- 01
Define the task and its limits
Which specific decision should the project support?
- 02
Choose the area and participants
Involve the area, responsible authorities and affected communities.
- 03
Document the baseline
Document existing data, processes and gaps.
- 04
Set roles and review procedures
Agree on responsibilities, alert pathways and human oversight.
- 05
Assess risks in advance
Consider false alarms, side effects and ecological impacts.
- 06
Evaluate results
Define criteria for adjustment, continuation or termination.
A pilot is not an end in itself. It needs a clear mandate, resources, expert review and defined stopping criteria.
07Sources and evidence status
Make evidence visible
What is supported?
What is a concept?
AEGIS distinguishes between externally documented background, its own conceptual proposals and questions that still need review before a pilot.
Externally documented
FAO guidelines describe integrated fire management as a comprehensive approach. They are voluntary guidance; they do not validate the AEGIS model.
Proposed structure
The six layers, protection cycle and scenario room are AEGIS’s conceptual organization—not an officially recognized or validated method.
Open before a pilot
Local data, indicators, thresholds, model performance, alert pathways, responsibilities and ecological effects each require expert and local review.
Selected primary sources
FAO (2024): Integrated fire management voluntary guidelines, 2nd edition
FAO · 2024Voluntary guidance on principles and strategic actions for integrated fire management. A reference for the subject area, not an endorsement of AEGIS.
EFFIS – European Forest Fire Information System
EU Copernicus / JRCOfficial European information system with fire danger, observed fire and damage products. Coverage and suitability depend on the product, location and purpose.
GWIS – Global Wildfire Information System
GEO / CopernicusGlobal information service with situation views, forecast products and data access. It is a reference for possible future review, not an AEGIS data connection.
Sources checked: October 2026. External material can change. Before publication or operational use, verify bibliographic details, terms of use and the documentation for each data product.
08Status and next steps
From concept
to expert review.
AEGIS is in the concept phase. These steps outline a possible path to careful evaluation; they do not imply that implementation or a pilot has begun.
Refine the model
Clarify protection questions, layers, responsibilities and limitations.
Engage expertise
Invite authorities, researchers and local stakeholders to a structured review.
Evaluate a pilot carefully
Agree on location, data, methods, criteria and stopping conditions.
Transparency: This website currently has no live data, validated risk scores, confirmed operational partners or active pilot areas.
09Contribute and collaborate
A concept improves through exchange
Better preparedness
is built together.
AEGIS is not recruiting formal members. The immediate need is for expert feedback and potential discussion partners to examine assumptions, limitations and sensible next steps.
RESEARCH & EXPERTISE
Science and practice
Fire ecology, forestry and environmental science, remote sensing, data analysis, incident planning and risk communication.
Possible contributionReview the model and terminology; identify questions that need testing.
PUBLIC AUTHORITIES
Authorities and responders
Forest and nature protection, civil protection, fire services, municipal planning and responsible administrations.
Possible contributionDescribe operational needs, responsibilities, alert pathways and practical constraints.
PLACE & COMMUNITY
Local stakeholders
Municipalities, forest owners, land users, civil society groups and people in areas exposed to fire.
Possible contributionBring local knowledge, protection priorities and possible unintended effects.
DATA & TECHNOLOGY
Technical partners
Geospatial data, sensing, interoperable systems, secure communication, privacy and accessible design.
Possible contributionAssess data availability, interfaces, security and technical feasibility.
Project brief
AEGIS at a glance
- Purpose
- A conceptual framework for connecting wildfire preparedness, shared situational understanding and responsible action.
- Approach
- Six functional layers, a learning protection cycle and review in the relevant local context.
- Status
- Concept phase. No live data, validated risk calculation or active pilot implementation.
- Next step
- Gather expert feedback and define concrete open questions for possible evaluation.
10Project and book
Book manuscript in preparation
Explore the idea in the book.
The manuscript moves from risk awareness, data, sensing and decision support to response management, ecology and potential pilot projects.
The concept is being developed and reviewed. The book has not yet been published.